The Phantom Google Phone and Virgins Making Deals

I attended the Java SIG and the Mobile Internet SIG of SD Forum a couple of weeks ago. What was interesting was the amount of talk that I heard on the Google Android platform and the Google Phone, especially since the latest news from the Google IO conference the week before is that the rumored Google phone that was supposed to be released in time for Christmas this year is either pushed back to 2009 or not scheduled for production at all, depending on the source of the rumor. The latest stories are still officially quoting the release for the first Android-based phones to be at the end of 2008.

My guess after having played with the Google Android SDK and reviewing its rapid release updates as ordinary developers found problems in the SDK is that Google still has a ton of work to do on Android before it is ready for an actual phone. After all, the Android simulation really did not deal with the mobile Internet, accessing the cell phone network or playing music. Forget about getting the Location API to work easily with the cell phone carriers’ networks. The Android competition was a cheap, quick and easy way to get thousands of developers to check the SDK for bugs. But Google still needs to check the other parts of their operating system. Since Google does not have any experience creating a real physical phone, I am sure that there are many things that are not tested yet. Android is in for a bumpy ride before its first cell phones appear.

In related news stories that show how the brightest of wireless stars can come crashing down, Virgin Mobile has agreed to buy once-promising MVNO Helio for $39 million. This is a great deal all around. Earthlink and SK has finally managed to upload this bottomless pit of money. Both have literally lost hundreds of millions of dollars. Back in September, SK bought its way onto this sinking ship with $270 million, while Earthlink was losing over $300 million per year. The $39 million is in Virgin Mobile stock, which has been steadily dropping since its IPO in the mid-teens less then a year ago to its current value of $2.75. Virgin ends up with two new directors on its board from SK and a cash infusion of $25 million from SK and $25 million from its parent, Virgin Group. Even more plus side for Virgin Mobile is that they are getting $17 million of handset inventory and 170,000 subscribers practically for free. If the Virgin Mobile management cannot get the stock up with these huge additions to their company, then maybe it is just not possible to make it as an MVNO.

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